Let’s Pull out of Afghanistan Now!
In February of this year, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal to begin the facilitation of a full US withdrawal from Afghanistan while allowing the Afghans to work a peace deal amongst themselves. With that signature, the longest “forever war” in US history begun to drawdown. We need to pull out of Afghanistan now, not because President Trump stated it but because it is overdue. The precipitous failure of the Afghan policy begun after 2003 with the disastrous and illegal invasion of Iraq. The focus of the war was shifted by the Bush Administration via its Iraq folly. President Obama took that failed approach and doubled down by not only increasing troops in the so-called surge but also starting a series of other wars without focusing any effort on the Afghan campaign. This further strengthened the Taliban position who leveraged the moment and changed the trajectory of the war and what it meant for the common Afghan; occupation by a foreign power who was not interested in improving their lives. Now we are at the crossroad of this peace deal between the Taliban and the US with only 4,500 troops in the country. While apprehension exists surrounding an early withdrawal, it is time to pull out regardless of conditions on the ground because a continued stay will not change the final outcome.
The Beginning
The war in Afghanistan started with the tragic events of 9/11. With those acts, President Bush equally held the Taliban responsible for the actions of Al Qaeda. Those who harbored the terrorist were no different than the terrorist themselves. The Taliban were supposedly willing to turn Al Qaeda over but requested proof of the acts. Unfortunately in the fog of war with a vengeance on the public mind, the US began the War on Terror.
Within months, the US was able to displace the Taliban hold on Afghanistan. With the US airpower, the almost collapsed and defeated Northern Alliance, supplemented with US special forces, was revived. The situation opened a new era in Afghan history with many dreaming of a different future. Unfortunately, those dreams quickly dissipated. Instead, a congregation of all the former warlords, who had cravenly dashed out of the country when the Taliban had routed them, returned under the auspices of the US to attend what became known as the Bonn Conference. This is where the recipes for a failed strategy began to be concocted. A congregation of illiterate and murderous warlords was brought together to plan the future of a new democratic Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai, a little known figure from the Soviet resistance, became the perfect forerunner to run the new government since his past was not tainted in bloodshed like the rest. He became the perfect figurehead to lead this “new” Afghanistan.
This new Afghanistan was created in original sin. By reassembling the same old gang that the Taliban had driven out to the delight of most Afghans, the US and European countries were putting in place what would ultimately be the key ingredient that would lead to a resurgent Taliban that would defeat them. This “new government” was comprised of the resented warlords who were all guilty of rape, torture, destruction, and theft of the Afghan people. As Hamid Karzai, the selected new president of Afghanistan, began his tenure in Afghanistan, another distracting effort begun brewing; the war in Iraq.
How it Went Awry
As the US began the heated precursor to the Iraq war, the focus on Afghanistan and reconstruction was diverted. Instead, the nefarious warlords and their henchmen leveraged the preoccupation of the American public with Iraq to start to amass their wealth and power. Mansions began to pop up on confiscated lands in the capital of Kabul as well as in other places such as Turkey and Dubai. American taxpayer money sent to rebuild Afghanistan instead ended up in their personal bank as well as their relatives and friends. All the while the people of Afghanistan did not reap any benefits. Unfortunately, many Afghans who went from abroad to revitalize their former homeland began to engage in the same practices of these warlords. While the veneer of progress was showered by the media all over, corruption ran amuck as well as crime soared. Sexual crimes against children were becoming mainstay practices in the cities and within the Afghan government police, something reminiscent during the Afghan Civil War before the Taliban rule that brought a cessation of such practices. Opium production skyrocketed after the US invasion. As a result, we see an opioid pandemic that closely correlates with Heroin production that has plagued communities upon communities within Afghanistan as well as countries around the world, yet the Taliban were able to eradicate opium production during their rule in Afghanistan.
All these abject failures by the Afghan government created a need for an alternative. The average Afghan was tired of the powerful and criminal warlord usurping anything they desired. The Taliban saw this opportunity early on and marketed themselves as the only independent alternative who would free the country from this occupation and nightmare. The more the government and its cronies harmed the people, the more the Taliban regained popularity. The actions of the corrosive Afghan government, unfortunately, became equated with the US and NATO, who heralded themselves as the guardians and protector of the government. The Taliban leveraging this situation began a two-front campaign; military and marketing. They began to put forces together attacking Western and Afghan government troops, engaging in battles, and even occupying cities for short bursts while simultaneously painting the existing government as a bunch of puppets installed by an occupier who has done nothing to improve the life of everyday Afghans except for a corrupt few.
They begin to put together the infrastructure of a legitimate insurgency and government. Within a decade, they were able to operate anywhere in Afghanistan even in areas never before such as Panjshir. They offered judicial relief to those harmed by the government. Large swathes of areas begun to fall under their control and influence. At this point, the war was lost and became a vain effort despite what officials claimed. The battle for the hearts and minds of the Afghan people was lost. There was no way a small insurgent group would be able to beat a government backed by the strongest military in history as well as its powerful military alliance without backing from the majority of the country as with any successful insurgency. Therefore, the mandate of the government was no longer existent.
Afghanistan Papers
“U.S. officials constantly said they were making progress. They were not, and they knew it”
Perhaps one of the most damning revelations of the entire war has been the publication of the Afghanistan Paper by the Washington Post, something that has been ignored by the mainstream media for the most part. The papers were an indictment of both the Bush and Obama administration with respect to the Afghan War. Similar to the Pentagon Papers and Vietnam, the Afghanistan Papers outlined how military and civilian officials at all levels made optimistic and cheerful declarations they knew to be false with undoubting evidence the war had become unwinnable.
“Every data point was altered to present the best picture possible,” Bob Crowley, an Army colonel who served as a senior counterinsurgency adviser to U.S. military commanders in 2013 and 2014, told government interviewers. “Surveys, for instance, were totally unreliable but reinforced that everything we were doing was right and we became a self-licking ice cream cone.”
The American public was lied to about victory being around the corner at every opportunity by both administrations despite knowing the insurgency had gained a momentum that was undefeatable. Furthermore, the continued perpetuation of the lie and knowingly sending troops into harm’s way despite knowing the situation on the ground is further damning.
Who Cares if the Taliban Get Power
As President Trump goes forward with his negotiated withdrawal from Afghanistan with the Taliban, the supposed apprehension being painted now with pro-war circles is that upon the US withdrawal, the Taliban will reclaim full power in Afghanistan and the supposed apocalypse will begin. Ok, so what? Who cares if they get power? While many will launch a litany of emotionally fueled arguments, the fact will show a potentially improved situation than the status quo if the Taliban were to regain power.
If the US leaves Afghanistan and the Taliban have not made peace with the Afghan government, the country will fall into a civil war, with certain areas that will resist their offensive. The resistance this time will most likely be futile and weaker than the post-Soviet withdrawal. The end result is an impotent and corrupt government will be removed. The US and Taliban have opened diplomatic channels, which can be leveraged to continue discussions even in a post-US Afghanistan.
The key strategic insurance the US needs is that Afghanistan will not host terror groups nor be a state sponsor of terrorism. If anything the Taliban will stymie emerging terror groups like ISIS that have begun to emerge in Afghanistan with the US presence. In Taliban held areas, ISIS has been stamped out and decimated. Per the US-Taliban agreement, Al Qaeda will be disavowed as well as any other groups that threaten the security of the US or its allies. This clause itself captures the main impetus behind the US occupation of Afghanistan in the past 20 years. By the Taliban ensuring no threats to the US emanating from Afghanistan, they now have a partner in fighting terrorism in the region. The economic weapon of sanctions is something that will enforce this deal and ensure that the Taliban honor their part as long as the US does. Being relegated into an economically isolated nation via sanctions is something the Taliban do not want again.
The government in Kabul today led by Ashraf Ghani is no different than the government of Najibullah, the Soviet puppet during the late 1980s. The only difference being the latter had a somewhat unifying political ideology that propelled his government to fight against the resistance. Whereas this time, it’s the almighty Dollar that unifies everyone in Ghani’s government. As the US money well begins to dry up, we see the fragmentation and collapse of his government. The only way to continue propping up the Afghan government is with perpetual funding, something that is not feasible but also indicative of a failed government.
Ultimately, like any nation’s trajectory, the survival of the strongest will rise. While external influence may swing the arc of history in one direction or another, in Afghanistan, 20 years of foreign involvement have led to the opposite of our desire state and only strengthening of the Taliban. It’s time we pull out of Afghanistan and allow the Afghans to take control of their own destiny, no matter the outcome.
