Erdogan’s Dream — The Neo-Ottoman Empire
Osman I, the founder of the Ottoman dynasty and Empire, hailed from a small Turkic tribe known as the Kayis who were from the Oghuz confederation. His fate was to create an empire with a trajectory that would shift the historical tectonic plates for centuries to come. Osman was known for his religious piety. One day, in his youth he had a dream, one that would foreshadow the political landscape of the Turkish nation and the world to come:
A moon rose from the breast of the holy man who was then his host and sank in his own; then a tree sprouted from his navel, a tree that covered the world and gave shade to mountains whence flowed waters to people everywhere. When Osman recounted the dream to his host, the holy man exclaimed that Osman would become a great ruler; whose offspring ruled the Ottoman Empire for many generations.
The rest was history. The Ottoman empire reigned for 623 years and near the end became known as the sick man of Europe due to its languishing state relative to the other rising powers in the region. World War I sealed the demise of the empire, which had sided with the Central Powers who ended up losing. Thereafter, the European victors attempted to occupy Turkey but another war of liberation led by Ataturk led to a separate treaty and the creation of the modern Turkish Republic. Since 1919, Turkey has been a strong Western ally, member of NATO and regional power.
In 2007, Erdogan rose to power in Turkey. His stamp on the Turkish political scene would forever change the internal dynamics of the country as well as the regional geopolitical calculus.
As Turkey had solidified its economy, it has began to look outside its border. Many attribute this to the Neo-Ottomanism political culture that is sweeping the country. This a markedly shift from the Kemalist foreign policy that was characteristic of the country for decades. There the country turned westward for better economic integration and alliances. With the failure of the EU to integrate Turkey into their union, the country looked eastward and envisioned the recreation of the Ottoman spheres of influence. This foreign policy is not necessarily overtly expansionist, even though buffer zones have been created in Syria but more use of soft power to build strength.
The Neo-Ottoman foreign policy can be seen in by the National Pact. The pact created near the end of the Ottoman Empire affirmed the inviolability of the Turkish frontiers that transcends the national borders. Irredentist maps of Turkish aspirations have been circulating showing important zones of influence. Turkey has come to a watershed moment in its history. Recent Turkish foreign policy actions demonstrate a large au fait of neo-Ottoman features.
Turkey established its largest overseas base in Somalia. Turkey has done multiple excursions into Northern Iraq as well as bombing raids into Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey is sending troops to pacify the Libyan civil war. Turkey continues to expand its control around Cyprus and Grecian Aegean Sea. Turkey has improved alliance with Iran. Turkey’s relation has greatly improved with Russia and gone to the extent of sacrificing relations with NATO via purchasing of Russian S-400 missiles. Turkey has moved in troops into Syria to secure important northern zones to ensure national security imperatives.
The Turkish foray into Syria will be the biggest military faux pas in its recent history. Recent escalations with the Assad regime in Idlib and potential for a full Turkish excursion into Syria can mark the beginning of a Turkish quagmire that will leave the country weaker and in a less respected position despite its regional aspirations.
Turkey’s relation has began to wane with the West and its focus with the East and Islamic world has grown greatly. Turkey sees itself poised in a turbulent region and time to take the leadership position of the region as a power and influential player. The Sunni world has been thrown up in a flux as Saudi Arabia has lost its tradition role as its leader. Regional players have been removed from the scenes as the countries have fell into civil war and destruction. Turkey sees this is as a critical moment in its history to help change the power politics of the region. The next steps Turkey decides to pursue in Syria will seal its fate of either achieving that Neo-Ottoman position or relegating itself into another failed state in the region.
