Afghanistan — The Unending War
In 2001, the United States along with NATO and 50 countries invaded Afghanistan in what was retribution for the 9/11 attacks against Al Qaeda and their host, the Taliban. While the Taliban were not directly connected to the attacks, their guest Bin Laden had plotted and orchestrated the attacks from safe havens across the country. Prior to the attacks, the country was in the last throes of a civil war that was favoring the Taliban, but the tides of history changed on 9/11. In October of 2001, the Taliban were removed from power and the US installed Karzai and the Northern Alliance. 19 years on, the situation in Afghanistan is more grave and bleak than ever. The majority of the country is back in the hands of the Taliban, the inept government of Ashraf Ghani is more ripe with corruption, barbarism and crime while the American public has grown weary of the longest war in its history with 73% believing the war is not a success. The only way to resolve the situation is a withdrawal and negotiated peace deal with the Taliban.
Rise, Fall and Return of the Taliban
Afghanistan, unlike its neighbors, had enjoyed 40 years of peace under a constitutional monarchy followed by a republic. It was not until 1978, when pro-Soviet Communist groups overthrew the government that would lead to decades of turmoil, death and barbarism. Within 1 year of the Communist coup, the Soviet Union rolled in with their troops on Christmas day 1979 to ensure their propped up government did not fall. Within 10 years, the Afghan resistance had dealt the Soviet Union their first and last defeat in war. Unfortunate for the Afghan people, the Afghan resistance or Mujaheddin engaged in a civil war for power after the Soviet withdrawal.
The next few years saw the darkest days in Afghan history with each part of the country broken into fiefdoms ruled by warlords who operated on murder, rape and destruction. The orphan youth who had endured the dark brunt of war meanwhile were being trained in local seminaries or madrassas. When the moment came, they rose and created a ripple in the anarchic environment by overthrowing the murder, rape and insecurity that had became the norm. This is how the Taliban were born. They chased out the brutal warlords and brought security for the first time in decades. The world and people of Afghanistan welcomed them initially. But this security came at a cost, extremism and infringement of rights. As the world isolated the Taliban because of their actions, they found an ally with deep pockets, Osama Bin Laden. In exchange for money, Bin Laden secured training camps for his own militia, Al Qaeda. Eventually this culminated into the 9/11 attacks, which led to the eventual removal of the Taliban by the US.
While Afghanistan seemed to be liberated by the US from the group of religious zealots, the issue was the US allies on the ground; the Northern Alliance. They were the same group of warlords who led to the rise of the Taliban in the first place. Their thirst of death, destruction and rape were etched into the history of Afghanistan. While Hamid Karzai’s selection and installment as president was a good choice since he did not have a tainted past, unfortunately most of his powerful ministers were illiterate warlords with a bloodied past.
Within a year and half, the war in Iraq caused a shift in the focus of everyone to Baghdad from Kabul. As the world fixated on Iraq, Afghanistan shifted back into corruption, abuse and banditry under a “democratic” government. After about a decade, Karzai’s tenure ended with the ascension of Ashraf Ghani into power, which had to be brokered by Secretary Kerry due to massive election fraud, only to continue the unwanted status quo.
As the barbarism of the warlords continued, the yearning for security and peace trumped the desire for democracy for the ordinary Afghan. This fact became lost as the world was focused on other hot spots. As a result, the Taliban propagandized the corruption, inefficacy and brutality of the government in Kabul as a vehicle to show themselves as champion of an occupied people. 18 years on, their insurgency is stronger than ever and not showing any signs of fatigue. With momentum and time on their side, The Taliban are in a stronger position than ever before.
The Cost of War
Aside from the sacrifice given by the US and Afghanistan, the economic impact of this war up to now and even after we withdraw will be enormous.
As of 2019, the US had spent $975 billion dollars and by the end of 2020, it will pass $1 trillion dollars. This is not accounting for the budget increases to the Department of Veteran Affairs and Department of Defense as a result of the war. The humanitarian aid provided to the Afghan government for its people have all been squandered by the warlords and funneled into their bank accounts. The Afghan people have seen only trickles of what was intended for them, all the while the American people are burdened for this war through the ever growing national debt.
Accounting for the cost of care for the troops and interest to the debt due to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan will reach over $8 trillion in the next few decades, almost half of the current national debt that took over 200 years to accumulate.
What’s Next
The US and Taliban delegation have been meeting on and off in Doha in the past few years, a negotiated peace deal does not seem imminent. Unlike other wars, Afghanistan will not be won in the battlefield especially this many years on, only a peace deal between the US and the Taliban will allow the necessary political goals of both sides to be achieved.
Furthermore, the Afghanistan Papers published by the Washington Post evidently demonstrated the delusion and false narratives being echoed by government officials about nation-building as well as the war effort. The Afghan war was being waged aimlessly and senior officials were fully cognizant it was unwinnable. Both the Bush and Obama Administration were complicit in the continuation of these lies to propagate a lost cause.
President Trump campaigned against the establishment dogma of war, occupation, and nation-building. This was one reason for his election victory. He wanted to focus on rebuilding America not other nations. Despite many politicians on both sides advocating for endless wars, the majority of Americans and veterans, who did the actual fighting, are against these wars especially the War in Afghanistan that has dragged on for almost two decades.
Clausewitz famously said “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” The military option did not yield the desire effect in Afghanistan, but the moment is not lost. Unlike previous powers in Afghanistan, we have an opportunity to achieve some political goals via negotiations. President Trump should secure promises from the Taliban in return for recognition of the group and withdrawal of all US troops. He should allow the Afghan government and the Taliban to figure out the situation after all US troops withdraw.
Most analyst believe the Afghan government will fall without the US presence. The reality is, if it does, so be it. Parallels are drawn between the Najibullah government and Ghani’s government. The difference is the former lasted longer than the latter without the intervention of a super power. After the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, Najibullah maintained power for almost 3 years without any support while Ghani’s government will not survive a year without major foreign cash inflow. The Communist government had aligned along ideological roots whereas the Ghani government is bounded by the Dollar. As soon as we withdraw, the government in Kabul will collapsed due to the financial well drying regardless if we leave this year or in 5 years. It is better if we leave now and finalize a peace deal with the Taliban.
Despite what many mainstream pundits believe, an alliance with the Taliban will allow the US to have a counterweight in the region to her adversaries. The Iranian expansion that now goes unfettered due to the war in Iraq will be checked on one side of its border, the Chinese expansion in the region can be checked and also act as a balance to the Russian activity in Central Asia as well. Most importantly the Taliban are the only force in the region that can eliminate the ISIS threat there.
If the Taliban renege on their promises, they can always be blacklisted and sanctioned to the point of no return. President Trump should seize the moment with his negotiations with the Taliban and withdraw all US troops prior to the 2020 election.
