Afghanistan — How It Went Wrong
We all know about the whole history of Afghanistan thanks to 20 years of the media but to summarize it correctly, which is something that doesn't happen can help us understand some aspects of the reason how we got where we are today.
Afghanistan had a recognized legitimate monarchy and then a republic until 1978, when the Communist coup overthrew the president. From April 1978 to Dec. 1979, 3 communist presidents ran the country, one overthrowing the next until December 25th 1979, when the Soviets fearing a failure of a Communist state militarily intervened. From 1979–1989, the Soviets occupied the country fighting a resistance group, referred to as the Mujahedeen, compromised of 7 divided groups, who would battle one another. When the Soviets withdrew, Afghans thought they would return to an independent ante-bellum Afghanistan, instead a brutal, bloody civil war erupted that changed the landscape of the Afghan societal fabric forever. While Afghan Society was not utopic prior to the invasion, the ethnic division was greatly exacerbated by the civil war, especially by two of the warlords; Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Ahmad Shah Massoud. Utilizing their ethnic divisions, the Mujahedeen and the former communists realigned to further devastate Afghanistan with a civil war. The civil war made everyone forget about the Soviet atrocities.
Born from the ashes and fire of this civil war was a new group. The leadership had been involved in the fight against the foreign invasion of the Soviets but many had retired to not fight against their countrymen. The soldiers of this army would be come from the orphans of the Soviet war who had been trained in the Madrassas across the border in Pakistan. They represented a puritanical brand of Islam that wanted to eliminate the nationalism, tribalism and greed that fueled the previous ages of resistance fighters. They came out of the south in 1994 and were mainly of the Pashtun ethnic group. Within years, they captured most of the country, except a sliver of the territory in the North operated by the warlords like Massoud, Dostum, Hekmatyr, etc. who now were all former enemies but had aligned under the banner of the Northern Alliance. Initially the Taliban were welcomed, because where they went, security and peace followed versus the chaotic nature. But some of their policy institution began to create uneasy tensions within and without the country. Then 9/11 happened and we know what happened from that day until the recent withdrawal. The recent total takeover of all of Afghanistan’s provinces brings a new era for the country. The last time any group, foreign or domestic, controlled all provinces was 42 years ago prior to the Communist coup.
Why Did We Fail?
This is not as simple as some say but there were some major indicators that were lurking for years that supposed experts, the media and everyone else ignored:
The Afghanistan Papers — These papers showed that despite what military and civilian officials were saying for years about victory around the corner, behind the scene the war was a stalemate at best. Military and Civilians leaders knew that the war’s chance of victory was never achievable. The effect was minimal, unlike the Pentagon Papers which changed the course of the Vietnam war, the Afghanistan Paper was largely moot in its effect despite the bombshell of information it contained
Corruption/Failed Experiment — The nation building project was born in sin. The coalition that was huddled up to lead the government after the US and NATO’s intervention was the same hated group of despotic warlords that ran away petrified at the first Taliban onslaught, so no surprised they ran way again. As the US became distracted with Iraq, Afghanistan devolved back into the fiefdoms ruled by warlords. People’s land were confiscated, rape, murder, etc. became the norm. The average Afghan was once again terrified, their hope for the utopic Afghanistan they believed would come about never took root. The democratization that was promised failed as well, every election was marked with massive implication of fraud, resulting in the US having to step in and becoming the kingmaker. In the last two decades, Afghanistan was always ranked near the top for most corrupt state. Under the auspices of a Western-backed government, the daily lot of the Average Afghan did not improve instead became worse.
Its the Economy Stupid — Despite spending $300 Million dollars a day to run the war, average Afghans did not feel the trickle down effect of the financial support. Instead corporations and corrupt Afghan political leaders were able to siphon it for themselves. Afghan infrastructure marginally improved.. Nation Building had failed. Many of our leaders keeps reiterating that it was our expertise. But history argues differently, look at Germany, Japan and South Korea, prime example of great nation building experiments by America. Why was it successful then, not now? Motivation. The goal in the Cold War was to show Capitalism as a utopic and prosper alternative. This time, there was no motivation, hence the coalition of Afghan leaders cobbled in Bonn were all murderers and rapists, rather than educated Afghans who were to be supervised to ensure nothing went awry like was done with the occupied Japanese, German and South Korean experiments.
History — The term Graveyard of Empires has a connotation for a reason. History really is important as a factor in the trajectory of a nation. The political mores and culture are formed in part by its history. Afghan history in the past 40 years has been only turbulent but over the course of its thousand year history, Afghans have never sit well with foreign occupation. When Europe had colonized most of South America, Africa and Asia, only a few nations withstood and pushed back on European imperialism, Afghanistan was one. It didn’t matter the cloak the people would wear to join a resistance to foreign occupation.
Geopolitical Calculus
The withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was bound to happen eventually if anyone ever studied the country, has ramification for the regional calculus as well as the global trajectory the US will have in its foreign policy. The new two fronts for the US is going to be domestic terrorism spearheaded by White Supremacist groups and China. With respect to a rival rising global power, Pax Americana seems to be coming to an end.
Afghanistan has the curse of geography. Today it is strategically located at a nexus of aspiring regional players such as China, Russia, Pakistan and India. China becoming a potential hemispherical hegemon, Afghanistan will once again be intervened externally, maybe not militarily but economically for sure. The landmass routes via the Belt and Road Initiative will definitely engage Afghanistan in the Sino orbit.
India, Iran and Russia will leverage the situation to ensure they can have a neutral at worst, friendly at best country to help their regional security strategy. Pakistan is nation that took the biggest gamble with its pro-Taliban elements and now it has paid off massively for its geopolitical strategy. It can refocus on India more proactively. The Afghan situation sets up some interesting geopolitical wrangling in the coming year.
